← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, Oct 7, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Cortus
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 27% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 58% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 42% | 2.65 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Dennis Geiger · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 18' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen |
| 32' | ⚽ | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kevin Vogt · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 98.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1724.88 | 1664.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.48 | 23.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 27.78 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |