← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 45% | 51% | 2.21 | value: +14% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · SC Freiburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Aarón Martín · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Anton Stach · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yannik Keitel · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Europa-Park Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 3957.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1716.17 | 1625.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.63 | -13.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.58 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 12.83 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |