← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 7, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Stieler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 25% | 21% | 4.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| RB Leipzig +0.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Under | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 27 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand