← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, May 14, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 68% | 60% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 5.82 | value: +14% |
| Wolfsburg win | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wolfsburg +1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Bayern München +1.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 75% | 59% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 41% | 4.50 | value: +83% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand