← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 42% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 31% | 33% | 3.19 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 44% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 56% | 2.19 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 15' | ⚽ | Mark Uth · 1. FC Köln |
| 42' | 🟨 | Carlos Gruezo · FC Augsburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 60' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 69' | 🟨 | Reece Oxford · FC Augsburg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln |
| 77' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luca Kilian |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 394.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1572.42 | 1641.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.16 | 31.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |