← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 16, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 62% | 70% | 1.58 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.55 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 17% | 12% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Wolfsburg −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 60% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 40% | 2.68 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Tom Rothe · Borussia Dortmund |
| 26' | ⚽ | Axel Witsel · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | ⚽ | Manuel Akanji · Borussia Dortmund |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 38' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 41' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
| coach days |
| 501.00 |
| 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1796.19 | 1609.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.40 | -16.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 60.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.28 | 24.48 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |