← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 41% | 36% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.18 | fair |
| Hertha win | 29% | 33% | 3.63 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hertha +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 13 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |