← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 36% | 36% | 2.76 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | 35% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +4% |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln |
| 36' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · 1. FC Köln |
| 65' | 🟨 | Anton Stach · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Dejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln |
| 79' | 🟨 | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 82' | ⚽ | Luca Kilian · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 282.00 |
| 463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1605.79 | 1623.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.36 | -15.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |