← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 19, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 53% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +3% |
| FC Augsburg win | 21% | 22% | 4.66 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Waldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mads Pedersen · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Reece Oxford · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart |
| 81' | 🟨 | Frederik Winther · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Tiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 839.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1622.87 | 1630.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.41 | 21.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.44 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |