← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 61% | 54% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.11 | fair |
| Bochum win | 15% | 22% | 6.66 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Sebastian Polter · Bochum |
| 25' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 29' | 🟨 | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 45' | 🟨 | Patrick Osterhage · Bochum |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Erhan Mašović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 52' | ⚽ | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 65' | 🟨 | Herbert Bockhorn · Bochum |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rafael Borré · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Paciência · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armel Bella-Kotchap · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 255.00 | 924.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1773.71 | 1649.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.32 | 28.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 34.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.95 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 28.18 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |