← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 66% | 50% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | 5.62 | value: +21% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 16% | 29% | 6.36 | value: +84% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Bayern München +1.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +1.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 61% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 39% | 4.00 | value: +57% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand