← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 48% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +3% |
| Wolfsburg win | 26% | 26% | 4.03 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wolfsburg −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 41% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 59% | 1.98 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand