← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.88 | fair |
| Greuther Furth win | 19% | 20% | 5.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Bochum −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 45% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 55% | 1.97 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Sebastian Griesbeck · Greuther Furth |
| 35' | ⚽ | Maxim Leitsch · Bochum |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gian-Luca Itter · Greuther Furth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Bochum |
| 53' | 🟨 | Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Armel Bella-Kotchap · Greuther Furth |
| 71' | ⚽ | Anthony Losilla · Bochum |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jetro Willems · Greuther Furth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Miloš Pantović · Bochum |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 916.00 | 1128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1644.30 | 1533.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.77 | 18.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 29.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 26.91 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |