← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 64% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.60 | fair |
| Hertha win | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +1.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| RB Leipzig +1.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 43% | 2.59 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Benjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig |
| 25' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Hertha |
| 34' | 🟨 | Joško Gvardiol · RB Leipzig |
| 48' | ⚽ | Stevan Jovetić · Hertha |
| 62' | 🟥 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Hertha |
| 64' | 🟨 | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 67' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 74' | ⚽ | Dani Olmo · RB Leipzig |
| 81' | ⚽ | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 84' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| 85' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · Hertha |
| 88' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 111.00 |
| 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1538.42 | 1738.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.09 | 20.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 25.03 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |