← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 64% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.82 | value: +31% |
| Bielefeld win | 15% | 11% | 6.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bielefeld −1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 55% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 45% | 2.52 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand