← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 12, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 80% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 8.00 | fair |
| Bochum win | 8% | 9% | 13.00 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum +2.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Bayern München +2.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75% | 79% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 14' | ⚽ | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · Bochum |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Jürgen Locadia · Bochum |
| 40' | ⚽ | Cristian Gamboa · Bochum |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gerrit Holtmann · Bochum |
| 58' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Bochum |
| 74' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · Bochum |
| 75' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin Pavard · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| venue | Vonovia Ruhrstadion |
| coach days | 895.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1566.06 | 1957.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.38 | -0.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 2.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 23.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 11.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.06 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |