← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Borussia Dortmund −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 57% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 43% | 3.20 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Manuel Akanji · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 16' | ⚽ (og) | Jeremie Frimpong · Borussia Dortmund |
| 20' | ⚽ | Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Dahoud · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | ⚽ | Robert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 46' | 🟨 | Karim Bellarabi · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 87' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Steffen Tigges · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 432.00 | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1911.39 | 1807.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.11 | 0.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 2.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 2.00 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 11.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.40 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 24.61 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |