← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 60% | 57% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
| Greuther Furth win | 18% | 18% | 5.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Greuther Furth +1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 39% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |