← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 57% | 51% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.29 | value: +17% |
| Bielefeld win | 20% | 22% | 4.88 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Bielefeld +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 44% | 2.47 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 9' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · Bielefeld |
| 18' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 24' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Patrick Wimmer · Bielefeld |
| 57' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lennart Czyborra · Bielefeld |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Ortega · Bielefeld |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kerem Demirbay · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | SchücoArena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1612.99 | 1821.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.13 | 29.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| league points | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 8.17 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 24.68 |
| state index | -0.23 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |