β Bundesliga 2021-22 Β· Sun, Sep 26, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Dingert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 43% | 42% | 2.28 | fair |
| Bochum win | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bochum +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand