← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 46% | 48% | 2.16 | value: +4% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.5 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Borussia Dortmund +0.5 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 69% | 1.61 | value: +11% |
| Under | 40% | 31% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK |