← Bundesliga 2021-22 · Fri, Sep 24, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 87% | 70% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 24% | 13.00 | value: +218% ⚠ |
| Greuther Furth win | 5% | 6% | 23.00 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth +2.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Bayern München +2.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 19% | 4.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 20' | 🟨 | Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth |
| 31' | ⚽ | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 44' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München |
| 48' | 🟥 | Benjamin Pavard · FC Bayern München |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nick Viergever · Greuther Furth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dickson Abiama · Greuther Furth |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Sebastian Griesbeck · FC Bayern München |
| 83' | 🟨 | Abdourahmane Barry · Greuther Furth |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cédric Itten · Greuther Furth |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 966.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1505.58 | 1945.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.32 | 14.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 1.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| league points | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.44 |
| state index | -0.86 | 1.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |