← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, May 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 53% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +9% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 24% | 19% | 4.15 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Wolfsburg −0.75 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 40% | 3.00 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jean-Paul Boëtius · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Maximilian Philipp · Wolfsburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · Wolfsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jean-Paul Boëtius · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 66' | ⚽ | João Victor · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Maximilian Philipp · Wolfsburg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Stefan Bell |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 691.00 |
| 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1738.05 | 1571.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.15 | 22.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| league points | 61.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.72 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |