← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, May 22, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 84% | 89% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 9.56 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 5% | 3% | 19.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München −2.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Augsburg −2.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84% | 76% | 1.12 | fair |
| Under | 16% | 24% | 6.00 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Bayern München |
| 23' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 33' | ⚽ | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 43' | ⚽ | Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München |
| 67' | ⚽ | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marek Suchý · FC Augsburg |
| 72' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · FC Augsburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lucas Hernández · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 568.00 |
| 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1929.38 | 1510.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.85 | -10.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.37 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| league points | 75.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.72 | — |
| state index | 1.57 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |