← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sun, May 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 26% | 26% | 4.01 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.25 | 57% | 1.71 |
| Wolfsburg −0.25 | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Maximilian Philipp · Wolfsburg |
| 20' | 🟨 | Benjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | ⚽ | Maximilian Philipp · Wolfsburg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · RB Leipzig |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kevin Mbabu · Wolfsburg |
| 60' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 685.00 |
| 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1793.85 | 1734.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.98 | -9.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 64.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.21 | 8.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.88 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |