← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, May 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 38% | 40% | 2.56 | value: +4% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 32% | 30% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg +0 | 55% | 1.80 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟥 | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rafał Gikiewicz · FC Augsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 49' | 🟥 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 44.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1584.92 | 1612.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.28 | -33.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |