← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sun, May 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 49% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 24% | 4.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · SC Freiburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ermedin Demirovic · SC Freiburg |
| 47' | 🟨 | Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Köln |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Köln |
| 81' | 🟨 | Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonathan Schmid · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 38.00 | 3447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1608.35 | 1676.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.89 | -29.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 15.71 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |