← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 37% | 42% | 2.60 | value: +10% |
| FC Augsburg win | 33% | 29% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| FC Augsburg +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · 1. FC Köln |
| 23' | ⚽ | Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln |
| 33' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Robert Gumny · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marius Wolf · 1. FC Köln |
| 52' | 🟨 | Carlos Gruezo · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Robert Gumny · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 22.00 |
| 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1514.94 | 1516.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.35 | -0.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 33.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.89 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |