← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 20, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 51% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 22% | 21% | 4.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 41% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 59% | 2.01 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Fabian Klos · Bielefeld |
| 39' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · Bielefeld |
| 50' | ⚽ | Fabian Klos · Bielefeld |
| 53' | 🟨 | Amos Pieper · Bielefeld |
| 58' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · FC Schalke 04 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Benjamin Stambouli · FC Schalke 04 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · FC Schalke 04 |
| 71' | 🟥 | Malick Thiaw · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salif Sané · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | SchücoArena |
| coach days |
| 50.00 |
| 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1536.92 | 1422.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.58 | -13.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.09 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |