← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 61% | 67% | 1.58 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 22% | 15% | 4.40 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 17% | 17% | 6.23 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FC Köln +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| RB Leipzig +1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.83 | value: +6% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand