← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 73% | 75% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.88 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 10% | 9% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SV Werder Bremen −1.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.81 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 29' | ⚽ | Giovanni Reyna · Borussia Dortmund |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 38' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Borussia Dortmund |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mahmoud Dahoud · Borussia Dortmund |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Christian Groß · SV Werder Bremen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
| coach days |
| 138.00 |
| 1295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1739.07 | 1549.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.26 | -11.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 46.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.20 | — |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |