← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 50% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 32% | 4.00 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wolfsburg +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| FC Bayern München +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 62% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand