← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 41% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 34% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 4.03 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK |