β Bundesliga 2020-21 Β· Sat, Apr 17, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Schmidt
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 31% | 28% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bielefeld β0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Augsburg β0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand