← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 39% | 47% | 2.58 | value: +21% |
| Wolfsburg win | 34% | 26% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Wolfsburg +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 52% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 48% | 2.33 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ridle Baku · Wolfsburg |
| 8' | ⚽ | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 27' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 36' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 46' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 61' | ⚽ | Erik Durm · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kevin Mbabu · Wolfsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rode · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Tuta |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1014.00 |
| 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1743.91 | 1744.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.79 | 8.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.87 |
| league points | 50.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |