← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 52% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.61 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 20% | 23% | 4.95 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| FC Augsburg −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 46% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 54% | 2.07 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg |
| 23' | 🟨 | Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Baptiste Santamaria · SC Freiburg |
| 46' | 🟨 | Guus Til · SC Freiburg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Philipp Lienhart · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Ermedin Demirovic · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3398.00 | 712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1696.10 | 1620.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.60 | 25.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 27.16 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |