← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 62% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.88 | value: +23% |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Bayern München −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 59% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 41% | 3.43 | value: +41% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand