← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 6, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 37% | 34% | 2.62 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 35% | 38% | 2.79 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.19 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Christoph Baumgartner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 23' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 65' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ryan Sessegnon · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 72' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Munas Dabbur · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 88' | 🟨 | Paulo Otávio · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Paulo Otávio · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | PreZero Arena |
| coach days |
| 248.00 |
| 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1637.93 | 1740.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.71 | 34.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.83 |
| league points | 27.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |