← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Winkmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 62% | 63% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −1 | 51% | 1.95 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 26' | ⚽ | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | 🟨 | Timo Becker · FC Schalke 04 |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sasa Kalajdzic · VfB Stuttgart |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sead Kolašinac · FC Schalke 04 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 77' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · FC Schalke 04 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 88' | ⚽ | Philipp Klement · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Daniel Didavi · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 454.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1659.62 | 1533.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.60 | -6.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 24.88 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |