← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Fri, Feb 12, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 79% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.99 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 7% | 6% | 15.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −1.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| FC Augsburg −1.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Reece Oxford · FC Augsburg |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marek Suchý · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Rafał Gikiewicz · FC Augsburg |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Olmo · RB Leipzig |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lukas Klostermann · RB Leipzig |
| 43' | ⚽ | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 62' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | 🟨 | László Bénes · FC Augsburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · RB Leipzig |
| 77' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Daniel Caligiuri · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 592.00 | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1792.71 | 1505.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.09 | -16.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | -1.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 41.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.20 |
| squad age | 24.98 | — |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |