← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 45% | 45% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 26% | 27% | 3.79 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Davie Selke · SV Werder Bremen |
| 12' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · SV Werder Bremen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jean-Manuel Mbom · SV Werder Bremen |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jhon Córdoba · Hertha |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ömer Toprak · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jhon Córdoba · Hertha |
| 57' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 77' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · SV Werder Bremen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 22.00 | 1210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1639.77 | 1632.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.09 | 10.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.10 | 25.64 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |