← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 23, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.95 | value: +18% |
| Bielefeld win | 21% | 18% | 4.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.21 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 27' | ⚽ | Filip Kostić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fabian Kunze · Bielefeld |
| 33' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sergio Córdova · Bielefeld |
| 39' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amin Younes · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Joakim Nilsson · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nils Seufert · Bielefeld |
| 75' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | SchücoArena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 784.00 | 937.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1564.54 | 1677.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.23 | 42.67 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |