← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Cortus
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 39% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 35% | 33% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 62% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 38% | 2.85 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Deutsche Bank Park |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 81' | 🟥 | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 81' | 🟨 | Breel Embolo · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aymen Barkok · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 898.00 | 1475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1634.84 | 1699.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.08 | -14.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 25.81 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |