← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 13, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 55% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.45 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 22% | 20% | 4.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen −0.75 | 51% | 1.96 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 66% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 34% | 3.39 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kevin Vogt · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | 🟥 | Stefan Posch · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Håvard Nordtveit · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 712.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1886.51 | 1776.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.69 | 17.82 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.88 | 25.39 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |