← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Fri, Dec 11, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 39% | 36% | 2.53 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 34% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.57 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Evan Ndicka · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 42' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Wolfsburg |
| 59' | 🟨 | Josip Brekalo · Wolfsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Bas Dost · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Xaver Schlager · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bas Dost · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | VOLKSWAGEN ARENA |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 529.00 | 894.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1758.91 | 1725.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.98 | 1.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 27.08 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |