← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Nov 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 38% | 37% | 2.64 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 36% | 33% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.75 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt +0 | 52% | 1.92 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 42% | 2.60 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart |
| 29' | 🟨 | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 37' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 50' | 🟨 | Aymen Barkok · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Makoto Hasebe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Bas Dost · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 61' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 75' | ⚽ | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 342.00 | 860.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1616.81 | 1720.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.30 | 16.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.36 | 29.10 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |