← Bundesliga 2020-21 · Sat, Sep 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 36% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 35% | 43% | 2.87 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 61% | 1.93 | value: +17% |
| Under | 50% | 39% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Paciência · FC Schalke 04 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Benjamin Stambouli · FC Schalke 04 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mark Uth · FC Schalke 04 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nassim Boujellab · FC Schalke 04 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · FC Schalke 04 |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jean-Manuel Mbom · SV Werder Bremen |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 78' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ozan Kabak · FC Schalke 04 |
| 84' | 🟥 | Ozan Kabak · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mark Uth · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 453.00 | 1091.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1609.18 | 1611.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.58 | 2.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 7.13 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 26.58 |
| state index | -1.47 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |