← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 20, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 64% | 55% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.70 | value: +5% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 15% | 23% | 7.00 | value: +58% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Wolfsburg +1.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 16' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bastian Oczipka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Schalke 04 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · FC Schalke 04 |
| 56' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · FC Schalke 04 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kevin Mbabu · Wolfsburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | João Victor · Wolfsburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Rabbi Matondo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Kevin Mbabu · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 355.00 | 355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1641.40 | 1735.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.51 | 3.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| league points | 39.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 3.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.61 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.88 | 26.23 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |