← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Wed, Jun 17, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 73% | 78% | 1.32 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.95 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 10% | 7% | 9.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 −1.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Borussia Dortmund −1.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 58% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 42% | 2.94 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Łukasz Piszczek · Borussia Dortmund |
| 30' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean-Philippe Mateta · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 79' | 🟨 | Raphaël Guerreiro · Borussia Dortmund |
| 79' | 🟨 | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ádám Szalai · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Signal-Iduna-Park |
| 90' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 717.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1921.72 | 1637.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.89 | -12.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| league points | 66.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 25.49 |
| state index | 1.57 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.57 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |