← Bundesliga 2019-20 · Wed, Jun 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Winkmann
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 62% | 55% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +7% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 16% | 20% | 6.15 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | André Silva · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 37' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · FC Schalke 04 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 50' | ⚽ | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bastian Oczipka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Can Bozdoğan · FC Schalke 04 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Weston McKennie · FC Schalke 04 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nassim Boujellab · FC Schalke 04 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Can Bozdoğan · FC Schalke 04 |
| 77' | 🟥 | Can Bozdoğan · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Trapp |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bas Dost · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 717.00 |
| 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1623.43 | 1551.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.60 | -41.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.13 | 3.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 23.78 |
| state index | 0.40 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |